Playing the Presidential Election Scenario Game

I watched tonight’s coverage of the Super Tuesday results with more interest than I’ve in politics for years. It’s fascinating (fun?) to still have both the Democratic and Republican races as close as they are right now. While it looks like McCain is well on his way to clinching the nomination sometime soon, the contest between Clinton and Obama is still very much in doubt. Who knows – maybe we’ll get lucky and have this thing come down to the convention.

I’ve been playing the general election scenarios in my head the last couple of days, and I’ve come to the conclusion that there’s really only one circumstance where there will be a Republican elected President: McCain vs. Clinton. Here’s how I see the possibilities.

Romney vs. Obama

Romney wins the Republican base, but Democrats and Independents flock to Obama for the win.

Romney vs. Clinton

This is the toughest one for me. Romney wins the base and the anti-Hillary vote, but Democrats and Independents add up for a small Clinton victory.

McCain vs. Obama

Obama gets the Democratic base, the Independent vote splits, and the Republican base stays home, giving Barack the Presidency.

McCain vs. Clinton

The Republican’s only chance. Hillary gets her base vote, of course, but McCain gets the majority of the Independents. The Republican base sucks it up and comes out to vote for “anyone but Hillary”, giving John the win.

I’m still surprised by the amount of hate some Republicans have for McCain. Limbaugh and the rest of the conservative radio crowd clearly have it out for him, and warn of impending doom and destruction if he gets the nomination. He’s not conservative enough, they say. With that in mind, my question is: So with McCain almost guaranteed the nomination now, and him being “more liberal than Hillary“, what does that say for the current state of the conservative movement? Not much, I think. Voters are obviously rejecting it, and for good reason. Years of Republican rule in the White House and in Congress turned out to be a disaster, with nothing to show for it except trillions of dollars of new debt for everything from the war to prescription drug hand-outs.

I’m still not convinced that the Republican party deserves to have four more years in the White House, but if they want to even have the chance, they’d better get over themselves and fully get behind McCain.

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