Election Market Wackiness

If I didn’t know better, I’d say that someone is trying to panic the market at Tradesports. Take a look at this:

Snapshot of Tradesports Bush/Kerry contracts at 3:16 pm, November 2nd, 2004
About ten minutes later, President Bush was back up to 40. I don’t know whether to believe that this is a genuine collapse in support for the President, or if someone is trying to manipulate the market to create the impression of a collapse in support. The only piece of news out that could cause this sort of reversal is the early exit poll results posted on Drudge a while ago. I don’t think we should put too much stock in them, but that’s just me…

Update @4:25 pm: The election contracts are still under fire:

Snapshot of Tradesports Bush/Kerry contracts at 4:20 pm, November 2nd, 2004
There doesn’t still doesn’t seem to be any basis for this. The exit polls are unreliable, so those should be looked at with suspicion. Does the market know something I don’t know?

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