Thankfully, the election is over except for the formalities. As of this post, Kerry has yet to concede, and is still holding out hope for Ohio. I find it hard to blame him for not conceding quickly after what happened in the 2000 election. However, there is statistically no way for John Kerry to win Ohio at this point: the President’s margin is just too big. I echo what others are telling Kerry: Be a gracious loser and give your concession today. There is a huge difference between the 538 vote margin in Florida in the year 2000 and the 136,221 vote margin currently in Ohio.
Speaking of that margin, it appears that the networks were/are quick to call states for John Kerry and much slower to call states for the President. For example, there is only a margin of 13,559 votes in Wisconsin – one 10th the size of the Ohio margin – yet the networks called that state for Kerry quickly. The media is trying to create the impression of a super close race in Ohio when there is absolutely no case for it. George W. Bush won Ohio, and by several points. Game over.
I’m still trying to decide whether my prediction yesterday turned out to be true. I’m going to give myself partial credit. I predicted a big win for the President, but didn’t specify what I meant by that. I was pretty confident that President Bush would get 300+ electoral college votes. High hopes? Maybe. Mainly, I thought he would have all of the states he has now plus Wisconsin and my home state of Minnesota. If you give the President Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, which are all in his favor, he has 286 electoral votes. Minnesota and Wisconsin would have put him up to 306 votes if he had won there. So, in that context, I don’t think I was correct. Looking at the popular vote, however, I do think the President got a big win. Looking at the pure numbers, he received more votes than any other president in American history. Also, he garnered a true majority of the popular vote – something President Clinton was never able to do either time he ran. Looking at it in that context, the President, and Republicans, are big winners.
Losers?
- John Kerry and John Edwards, obviously
- The Michael Moore wing of the Democratic party
- Pollsters, particularly John Zogby
- The Iraqi insurgency/terrorists
- International terrorism
- The French
Update @ 10:00 am: ABC Radio just announced in the middle of a headline that Kerry/Edwards still had a lot of uncounted provisional ballots left in Ohio, that John Kerry will concede at 1:00 pm today. It’s over!!